Europe, home alone?

Since January 20, the United States has rapidly turned into an authoritarian state. The repercussions will reach far beyond the US. During Trump's first term, the main concern was American isolationism, the US withdrawing from the world, especially from Europe. But now, isolationism almost seems desirable. Instead, the US is becoming a threat to European security and democracy. His recent threats to occupy Greenland could still be dismissed as a provocative negotiation strategy.

But Vice President J.D. Vance's speech at the Munich Security Conference made it clear that the US is not only dismantling its own democracy but also openly attacking European values and institutions. Vance and Trump want to reshape Europe along the lines of Viktor Orbán. This is a break in transatlantic security policy and the basic concept of the rule of law and democracy. Vance's criticism of democracy and freedom of expression in Europe seemed particularly cynical when Trump and Musk are in the process of dismantling democratic institutions in the USA and banning journalists who do not follow their line from the White House. Vance's meeting with Alice Weidel of the AfD and his speech make it clear that he openly supports extreme right-wing and right-wing populist forces.

Both aspects underscore this profound break with Europe that has been budding in recent weeks: The United States is no longer an ally but has become a revisionist world power. This is even more drastic as the transatlantic alliance as a coalition of democracies has been a central pillar of the European peace order since 1945. After 1990, this Alliance expanded to include the former communist states. It was a compensation for the Yalta Conference on the Crimean peninsula, when US President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Soviet dictator Josef Stalin together with British Prime Minister Winston Churchill 80 years ago, divided Europe into spheres of influence. While Russian imperialists today dream of a new Yalta – “Vote AfD or we will occupy Germany once more and divide it between Russia and USA”, says a posting under the name Alexander Dugin on X – Trump seems to be less interested in a divided Europe than in a Europe ruled by ideologically like-minded people.

There is a triple danger for Trump for democracies beyond the borders of the USA:

First, the dismantling of USAID has meant that the largest state development aid agency almost overnight no longer functions. In addition to vital projects, there is suddenly a lack of funds for election observers, independent media and critical non-governmental organizations that stand up to autocrats worldwide. It will be much easier for dictators to manipulate elections, control the media and take over institutions after USAID is eliminated. In addition, autocrats are already taking advantage of the opportunity to attack NGOs for their support from USAID.

Second, the concentration of power of a president who tweets, “Those who save their country break no laws,” and tries to undermine democratic checks and balances is a global role model. Many commentators are still rightly describing how Trump modelled his power grab on Hungary and Poland. But Trump has since become a role model for autocrats.\

This is completed – third – by the already mentioned open support of authoritarian and right-wing extremist forces worldwide. J.D. Vance's speech showed that this support has long since become state policy and is not just the private position of Elon Musk, the powerful head of DOGE, which – with an unclear legal status – claims to reduce bureaucracy, but in fact crushes resistance in the authorities.

What are the consequences of all this for European security? The European Union stands for a counter-model to Trump's autocratic ambitions: a democratic order in which power is limited by rules and compromise. Thus, the EU is a bigger target than China or Russia. As a union of democratic states (except Hungary) it is also more exposed to American influence.

The attempt to build diplomatic bridges with Trump, as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer promises, is doomed to failure. Instead, Europe must take him seriously as a threat. The hastily convened summit in Paris is a first step, and the involvement of Great Britain is also an important signal. But actions must also follow. The logical consequence is the creation of a European army – including the appropriate armament – and a defense structure capable of defending the continent without US support. Further support for Ukraine – three years after Russia's attack – will be the baptism of fire. How much Europe has already been relegated to the geopolitical “side table” was demonstrated by the recent meeting of the foreign ministers of the USA and Russia in the Saudi capital Riyadh.

In addition to addressing these developments, the EU must also find an answer to internal threats. This means a much more robust approach to disinformation, especially on social media. It is unacceptable for the EU institutions and its member state governments to continue to use Elon Musk's platform X. In Europe, there is a tradition, for good reason, that radical and extremist opinions are more strictly limits than in the USA. It is crucial to reimpose these boundaries. Even if the decision of the Romanian Constitutional Court to cancel the presidential election at the last minute was problematic, courts and institutions must take action against manipulation. It should also be recognized that the success of far-right and anti-democratic parties is not solely due to the influence of Russia or the USA. Instead of imitating these parties, it is essential to develop a clear alternative. In all of this, Europe must not isolate itself but must cultivate active alliances with other democracies. Such democratic armament is just as essential as military defense after the collapse of the transatlantic bridge is just as important as military defense.

The German version of this text is published in Die Furche.